CIWM Presidential Report highlights range of factors shaping the future of RDF exports

A report published today by CIWM entitled ‘RDF trading in a modern world’ explores the range of factors shaping the future of RDF exports. The report, which marks the inauguration of CIWM’s 2018/19 President Enda Kiernan, was carried out by SLR Consulting Ltd. It explores the current landscape for RDF exports from the UK and the Republic of Ireland and models possible future scenarios taking into account factors including potential rises in recycling rates as a result of the EU Circular Economy Package (EU CEP) targets, development of more domestic EfW capacity in some countries, and the impact of Brexit on market conditions and controls.

To inform understanding of the future outlook for exports, SLR developed mass balance projections for waste sectors in the Republic of Ireland and the UK. Overall, forecasts indicate that in the event that the EU CEP 2030 requirement for 60% recycling is achieved, RDF exports will contract dramatically. At an individual country level, however, the research shows a range of different market dynamics emerging.

RDF exports from the Republic of Ireland peaked in 2014 at 557 kt but have fallen steadily since to 327 kt in 2017. A further reduction in RDF export tonnages is expected as new domestic EfW capacity is developed, and recycling rates increase.
On a per capita basis, Northern Ireland has the greatest reliance on RDF exports, and this reliance is likely to continue until domestic EfW projects are successfully developed. Current exports to the Republic of Ireland, which in 2017 was the third largest market for Northern Ireland RDF, may be impacted by the post-Brexit border settlement.
In England, build out of domestic EfW capacity may erode RDF export tonnages, while future recycling levels are pivotal to the long term outlook for exports. In the current absence of a national strategy to increase recycling levels, it is not possible to project the recycling rate ultimately achieved by England with any certainty –however it is clear that, accounting for expected domestic EfW capacity, achievement of circular economy recycling targets in England implies the cessation of large scale RDF exports.
Scottish local authorities may look to expand RDF exports to meet the 2021 ban on landfill of biodegradable waste – though some may also opt to comply via haulage of residual waste to EfW facilities or landfills in the North of England. In the longer term, Scottish residual treatment requirements are likely to be met by emerging Scottish EfW capacity.
With strong recycling performance and two major EfW facilities in the North and South, Wales is likely to have limited reliance on RDF exports. By specifically targeting residual waste treatment funding to domestic EfW projects, Welsh Government disincentives export.

The report highlights the significant uncertainty posed by Brexit, and acknowledges that the potential impact for the UK is difficult to assess at this point in time.

“In all countries, RDF exports continue to play a valuable interim role diverting material from landfill. For the UK, however, the Brexit process nevertheless raises the possibility that the practice of exporting RDF will become less economic. While it looks likely that tariffs will not apply to RDF, an onerous customs regime would add to transport times and administrative burdens,” explains SLR director Alban Forster.

“The UK Government can help to limit these impacts by pressing for continuing free movement of RDF, regardless of the ultimate outcome of Brexit negotiations,” says CIWM Executive Director Chris Murphy. “CIWM has been keeping a close eye on developments, and liaising with Defra as they work to ensure that regulatory alignment is maintained post-Brexit, even in the event of a no-deal scenario. However, other factors such as border controls and delays, and haulage costs, could also adversely affect the economics of RDF export. Regulators across the UK will need to be alert to a number of risks in the event of significant disruption, including stockpiling and a greater risk of waste crime.”

A summary of the findings and the Presidential Report can be found here.

ENDS

Notes to Editors:

CIWM is the leading professional body for the resource and waste management sector representing around 5,500 individuals in the UK, Ireland and overseas. Established in 1898, CIWM is a non-profit making organisation, dedicated to the promotion of professional competence amongst waste managers. CIWM seeks to raise standards for those working in and with the sector by producing best practice guidance, developing educational and training initiatives, and providing information on key waste-related issues. More information can be found at www.ciwm.co.uk

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