To Boldly Go...

Having looked back on the journal's 100-year history, CIWM deputy editor, Gemma Howard, felt it only right to redress the balance by asking some contributors to look forward. So what does the future hold?

Having delved into the journal's past as part of our centenary celebrations, I wanted to turn my attention to the future. What can we expect for the future of waste and resource management, and what will the future waste manager look like? From what I have read of the past 100 years the opinions and desires of our predecessors haven't changed all that much from what our peers think - and want - today.

There are already products and services that point the way to the future, in my opinion, as was demonstrated at Futuresource, for example. Imagine fewer collection vehicles on the road, and fully functioning underground waste collection systems, with separation occurring at the point of disposal. Is this the future or the present? Perhaps things could go even further, and we could transport all waste underground, straight to central depots where all materials streams could be re-used, or at least recycled, with the same system applied nationally… no longer a postcode lottery of waste collection systems! Could this be applied to high-rise buildings? And could it provide a solution to the storage of waste between collections? Okay, now that sounds more like the future than the present… but by how much?

And if we're talking "future", let's really let our imaginations run wild. I see robot litter-pickers patrolling the streets, identifying and removing debris and detritus, while simultaneously recording data for the Clean Britain Awards, for example. The jobs lost to the "future workforce" could be redeployed elsewhere, in research and development roles, education and the development of newer, and better, technologies; in linking the waste, resources, climate change and all the other associated agendas into one driven, focused and passionate workforce.

What of incineration, for example? More or less of it? Green energy being poured into the National Grid is surely a "future must"? The idealist "zero waste" concept will surely still be on the agenda in five, 10, perhaps even 50 years time? Will we ever achieve it? And to do so would we need to see a greater commitment to renewable energy: wind farms and solar power? Will our ever-changing climate allow us to make such a change?

Anyway, I digress, and while I set about designing my robot litter-picker I'll leave you in the hands of Dennis Eagle, Whitespace, the Association for Organics Recycling, the Welsh Local Government Association and CIWM chief executive, Steve Lee, to tell you their version of the future.

Vehicles

With a manufacturing heritage that dates back to 1895, when Dennis Brothers was founded in Guildford, Dennis Eagle has seen over a century of developments. However, what will the next 100 years hold? Managing director, Norman Thoday, discusses the future evolution of the industry:

"Where advances in technology are concerned, a century is a long time by any stretch of the imagination. To put this in perspective, let's step back 100 years. Here, we see a very different world where the first commercial passenger flight had yet to take place, where the fireplace - not the television - was the focal point in family sitting rooms and where the impact mobile telephones, computers and the Internet would have on our daily lives was inconceivable.

"A lot can happen in 100 years so it will be difficult to say with great accuracy what the industry will look like in 2110. However, by looking at recent advances in technology we can predict the general direction future developments will take.

"Becoming more sustainable is a key objective for the whole industry and increased landfill taxes and rising fuel costs are already leading to a more innovative approach when it comes to refuse collection. As a result, we are witnessing significant investment in dual fuel and electric fuel technologies, as well as an increase in the number of planned anaerobic digestion and mechanical biological treatment plants creating energy from waste.

"Alternative and greener fuel sources will be key going forward. Improvements in battery technology mean that energy recovered from braking is becoming a more viable power source for vehicles. More efficient ways of harnessing and storing this, coupled with alternative innovations in energy generation, mean we could eventually see refuse collection vehicles being self-propelled by their own power sources or fuel cells, with no reliance on external fuel sources.

"The real deciding factor when it comes to shaping the future direction of the collection industry will be methods of waste disposal. Household disposal systems, such as kitchen waste units, may become more commonplace, encompassing a wider range of materials. Communal collection points are a standard feature in a number of European countries and some, including Scandinavia, are also utilising Automated Vacuum Collection (AVAC) systems, which transport waste at high speeds through underground tunnels to buildings where it is compacted and sealed in containers before it is transported away for recycling or disposal.

"The effectiveness of such systems in separating waste streams makes them an attractive option for waste management, but the high cost of implementing such methods - particularly when retrofitting to existing developments - has been a barrier to their widespread adoption. However, assuming the majority of waste - including packaging - becomes biodegradable, the refuse collection industry will need to adopt a more logistical role.

"No one can predict with certainty how the industry will evolve over the next 100 years but a forward-thinking approach is vital if we are to successfully take on the challenges facing our society in terms of energy and the environment. As a refuse collection vehicle manufacturer it is our duty to push the boundaries of innovation, continually evolving to help local authorities provide an efficient service in the drive towards a more sustainable future."

Bioaerosols

David Tozer, technical officer at the Association for Organics Recycling (AfOR)discusses bioaerosols:

"At the time of writing this article, the Environment Agency (EA) was on the cusp of releasing its updated position statement on bioaerosols. As drafted, the pending position would affect new sites as the EA's stance seems to be to 'not normally grant an environmental permit for any new composting site within 250m of a sensitive receptor' if that facility intends to handle more than 500 tonnes and/or carries out a composting operation in the open.

"This position is likely to be taken due to the potential for high, peak levels of bioaerosol release from such activities. In addition, the permits for current sites within 250m of a sensitive receptor will be reviewed for adequate bioaerosol monitoring requirements. Adopting the precautionary principle, the EA's position is likely to stand until a suitable methodology for quantitative Site Specific Risk Assessment of Bioaerosols (SSBRA) becomes available.

"Numerous variables affect bioaerosol dispersal, and although monitoring, dispersion modelling and risk assessment techniques have improved since the composting industry's infancy in the 1990s, there remains room for improvement.

"Facilities planning to start composting, and existing facilities already composting more than 500 tonnes at any one time with an open-air process or process stage, are expected to call for a better SSBRA methodology to be developed, considered and accepted by the EA as soon as possible.

"In terms of policy AfOR anticipates stricter controls, which resonate from on-going concerns relating to bioaerosols and the limited information that puts those from composting into context with other types of activity that generate bioaerosols. There is a drive to enclose waste treatment activities due to their potential to minimise bioaerosols released. However, it should be noted that for open-air composting processes there are technologies and management practices that can significantly reduce the release of bioaerosols, eg negative aeration of static piles.

"AfOR will seek to establish, with help from industry and the EA, a specific program that aims to achieve the following:

• greater scientific understanding of bioaerosols in compost or compost- like processes. This may help to substantiate the current suggested threshold limits for bioaerosols of 300, 1000 and 500 CFUm^-3 for gram-negative bacteria, total bacteria and Aspergillus fumigatus respectively

• development of an accepted, pragmatic and versatile methodology for SSBRA bioaerosol monitoring equipment, which is cost-effective as well as technologically viable.

"Towards moving away from a precautionary position, the industry, the EA and specialists in the field of bioaerosol monitoring and risk assessment should now work together to improve the evidence base for decision-making on bioaerosol emissions from organic waste treatment facilities. Investment will also be vital so that answers can be found; industry is willing to explore the possibilities if it results in the sector being regulated in a consistent, evidence-based manner."

Engagement

As Wales launches its Towards Zero Waste strategy, Stu Hodges, community engagement officer for Waste Awareness Wales, explains why the need to consult and engage local communities is becoming more important than ever before:

"After a slight pause at the diversion sign of the Landfill Directive, our industry has rushed headlong through the complexities of collection schemes and the issues of technology and economics that have grown up around them. There was a need to clarify our new direction.

"Towards Zero Waste provides us with a clear 'straight ahead'. It outlines the green economy, technologies and behaviours that are essential for Wales to realise its vision of 'one planet' living - a nation that uses only its fair share of resources by 2050.

"But policy and legislation, while integral to inspiring change, will only ever point the way. They simply map our direction of travel. Our greatest challenge now is to fuel a vehicle capable of taking us there. To create this momentum, we must place people at the heart of the process.

"True, direct and honest community engagement is wide reaching. It encompasses a whole spectrum of activities, from communications and consultation, through to empowering people to make their own decisions. A bolder use of engagement actively opens up space for change and ultimately, from challenging people's perceptions to influencing their behaviour, over the next few decades 'change' is what our industry is all about.

"Nowhere is the need for improved community engagement more evident than in the drive to develop a new waste treatment infrastructure. It is time to realise that communication is not a luxury but a critical factor for success. If people are going to accept changes that will impact on their lives, we will have to help them feel confident that they are doing so for a very good reason. To energise a balanced public debate, we will need to start early and invest in consultation and communication from the outset.

"So the future of our industry must include a commitment to clear and simple messages. Right now some of us talk resources, others waste. Some focus on climate or carbon, while others focus on energy. We are all transfixed with our own little piece of the puzzle - why this facility must go there, why the plastic bottle but not the pot can be put in the green or the blue box.

"As an industry we must enter the future with a simplified conversation. As we grapple with the issues of resource efficiency, and the link between waste, energy and the wider social good we will need to set out the whole of the problem, while making the whole of the community a part of the solution.

So whether on Facebook and Twitter, or old-fashioned face-to-face and kerbside debate, let's be open and let's be honest. Let's inform the public about the 'what' and the 'why', and let's be bold and engage them in the decision-making process."

Information

Phil Garvey of Whitespace Waste Software talks software, the Internet and waste information:

"Beam me up Scottie, I need warp drive in 10 seconds… that brings back memories of a gallant Captain Kirk and his team of intrepid explorers. When Gene Roddenberry wrote the first Star Trek series in 1966, his incredible imagination allowed him to envisage technology that, even almost 50 years later, is still way beyond the technical capabilities of man.

"History teaches us that the ability to predict the technology in the future is impossible for all but a select few evangelists and that even they get it wrong sometimes. Given this background, it is difficult to envisage the technology advances that will be implemented by councils in the future, but perhaps it is possible to draw a few conclusions and make three very specific predictions.

"It is a safe bet to predict that only web-based applications will be deployed in the future. The ongoing support costs and integration benefits mean that any council buying older client server-based technology will, ultimately, have to spend more for less benefit.

"The ability for multiple council organisations to collaborate using one application will be a key driver for change. Web-based technology, coupled with software delivered as a service, or 'the Cloud', will allow councils to operate in partnership both with each other and with their selected contractors.

"For example, in a shared contact centre an assisted collection request is raised, which is then seamlessly passed to the relevant council for approval - before being passed to the contractor for action and confirmation. All of this is done with no interfaces, just a single application shared across multiple organisations.

"As mobile network coverage continues to expand and improve, this will offer cheaper and faster real-time updates from crews to the operational centre. As technology prices continue to tumble, all operational staff will be connected 24/7. This means that employees will be able to provide continual updates on progress and the council will open up this information so people can see 'where is my dustcart now' type information.

"One thing is certain, as we continue to analyse the impact of our new government, councils will have to deliver more for less and demonstrate real business benefit with real savings."

Streetscene

Dr David Gillett, executive director of Taylor, discusses the future of bins and says that to understand the present and the future, we must first look back:

"In the small rural village in northwest England where I grew up, was a disused tip that, until the 1930s, had been the village's bin. From then, into the early 1980s, we all had a round metal dustbin at our homes, manually lifted and tipped into the refuse vehicle. Multi-occupancy premises and commercial users had 850 or 930-litre Paladin bins - round and quite unstable, with small wheels, or without wheels and moved on a trolley.

"Since then, via a brief love affair with black bags, we've standardised on plastic two-wheeled bins for homes and steel four-wheeled 1?100-litre or 660-litre bins for high-rise and business users. We've gone from one bin to two or more, as we separate recyclables from residual waste. In summary we've contained our waste to control where it gets dumped and, starting about 15 years ago, we began to recover or recycle it. So where next?

"As we seek to recycle more and more, the bin is in transition, from the big row of military-looking recycling banks to mini-recycling centres of smart, painted containers with clear signage, located in full view right outside the front door or in the town plaza - the proven near-entry scheme that the public buy in to, working on the 'little and often' method of depositing recyclables.

"High capacity, high collection efficiency systems will grow in importance, bringing space saving and aesthetics, but the difficulty of installing these systems below ground due to conflicts with existing sub-surface infrastructure is likely to limit the ability to retro-fit them into existing areas.

"More than publicity, public outreach and branding, behaviour change is a specialist consultancy service about nudging people from all cultural and economic backgrounds to change behaviour permanently to recycle correctly and to treat bins with respect to keep their community neat and tidy.

"We're probably in a 'bin retreat phase' driven by collection efficiency and highly efficient MRFs, in which the last decade's move to an array of bins for full source segregation gives way to one bin for commingled dry recyclables, one bin for residual waste and a food caddy. We might, in the future, have a bin for food packaging and nappies, but the incineration of the organic elements of the residual waste bin seems much more likely. For the non-volatile elements of the waste stream, we're likely to use as big a bin as we can accommodate to reduce the collection frequency and to help keep costs down.

"Today the Health & Safety Executive WISH guidelines recommend that bins meet the EN 840 standard, and that they are re-tested and re-certified to this standard every six months. We believe this should become mandatory.

"Local authorities and private collectors routinely finance refuse vehicles, yet buy the fleet of bins with capital, despite the bin fleet costing much more than the vehicle. With public finances facing record cuts, it would make sense for this ridiculous model to change and for local authorities to rent bin fleets as an asset managed service - paying for them in line with usage. Whilst this transaction would seem too small to interest local authority finance directors, they would be well advised to pull up their chairs and give it detailed scrutiny, because underlying this transition is the ability to turn an often loss-making trade waste service into a materially highly profitable one.

"The near future vision of a change to an asset managed bin fleet could lead to big reductions in management and maintenance overheads, but the revolution would come through the asset manager implementing routing, identification and weighing technology that stops fraudulent 'dark lifts' and allows, without being a time-consuming burden, the management of profitability by individual customers, allowing collection fees to be set to make the user pay in line with the waste they produce, rather than abusing a low-priced local authority trade waste service as many do today."

Resources

Steve Lee, chief executive of CIWM, talks us through his "unique" vision of the future and explains the many shifts that have taken place within the Institution:

"Greetings from the Chartered Institution of Resource Preservation (ChIRP) in the year 2110. Technology has come on a long way since your days and we can beam back to you guys, although not in proper flavours yet.

Resource efficiency in product and service design and delivery really came on in the 21st Century. Fortunately that means the standard of living hasn't dropped as much as you might have thought. So… although there are now more than 9bn of us, we're actually not coping too badly for resources. We're hydrogen-based now, so we have managed to peg average temperature rise to just three degrees. The weather's pretty good here in Northampton, but others are faring less well. We still have oil, but personal carbon allowances and the high prices have helped us throttle back on oil and all resources are kept working.

"Nothing is wasted (we don't even talk about 'waste' anymore). It's our job to separate out and categorise all resources and direct them to the right process. Steel and glass just live on and on; other stuff is used as feedstock for material synthesis (I haven't seen real 'plastic' for years) or to generate energy. Resource preservation is central to our economy, every business and every consumer. The very idea of fly-tipping! It's like burning your own credits!

"The real shortages have turned out to be: water, food, energy and useable land, plus anything that depends on them - like vegetable or animal-based materials. Oh, and thanks to your profligacy, we ran out of rare stuff years ago. Most of our rare earths (excuse the pun) are mined off-planet. Turned out that we are 'Life on Mars' after all.

"Your Institution is still going strong. The needs that brought us together 200 years ago - information, skills, best practise and influencing everyone around us - remain unchanged. How we do it has come on a bit though. Real paper is far too valuable to write or print on, and many of the kids don't even read anymore. The information is beamed to you so that you can turn it into a drink. We can literally absorb information these days! Early flavours were a bit garish, but we're working on more palatable versions and are turning to olive and corn snack flavours next. Next month's ChIRP mag will come in a reasonably convincing beer flavour but, sadly, we advise consumers not to use 'real' water in their 3D printers to make it. We still network face-to-face quite a bit but most work is via 'thinkinars'. They taste awful, but we're working on that too.

"Life goes on, fortunately. The football is no better but at least we're not all wearing silver jump suits (not a flattering style for all of us!). So keep evolving, because every step you take back then helps us now."